Ericsson predicts 7x growth in mobile data traffic for SEA and Oceania by 2024

- Total mobile data traffic in Southeast Asia and Oceania to grow 7x by 2024

- Total mobile data traffic to grow from 2.3 exabytes (EB) to 16 EB per month by 2024

- Monthly data traffic per smartphone to grow at 29% from 3.6 GB to 17 GB during the forecast period

- Heavy usage smartphone users in Singapore could consume as much as 200 GB of monthly data over a 5G device by 2025

Rapid early momentum and enthusiasm for 5G has led Ericsson to forecast that the total mobile data traffic per month in Southeast Asia and Oceania is expected to grow 7x from 2.3 EB in 2018 to 16 EB by 2024. The company had to revise its figures upwards recently.

Data traffic per smartphone per month in this region is forecast to grow from 3.6 GB to 17 GB at a CAGR of 29% from 2018 to 2024. The June 2019 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report also anticipates that almost 12% of subscriptions in the region will be for 5G by the end of 2024.

Other findings include:

- By end-2019, 5G smartphones are expected to be available in all three spectrum bands

- By 2024, 5G networks are forecast to carry 35% of mobile data traffic globally. Total traffic is predicted to reach 131 EB (exabytes) per month in 2024

- By 2024, video is forecast to make up almost 75% of mobile traffic, up from 60% in 2018

Martin Wiktorin, Head of Ericsson Singapore, Brunei and Philippines says, “Mobile video traffic is fuelling the total data traffic as users are spending more time streaming and sharing video. This is expected to continue, as video is embedded in all types of online content. As 5G is gradually rolled out with compatible devices being successively introduced, streaming 360-degree videos and augmented/virtual reality (AR/VR) will start to be a significant factor in mobile traffic growth.”

According to the latest Ericsson ConsumerLab study 5G Consumer Potential, based on 1,500 interviews with smartphone users aged between 15 to 69 years old*, 53% of smartphone users in Singapore believe AR glasses to be the norm by 2025. Consumers are expected to spend an additional three hours watching videos on mobile devices by 2025, out of which one hour will be used with AR/VR glasses. Based on consumer-predicted future usage patterns, heavy usage smartphone users in Singapore could be consuming as much as 200 GB monthly by 2025 - this contrasts with mobile data consumption in India, which tops current global numbers with 10 GB used per smartphone per month, said Wiktorin.

With growing consumer awareness around 5G, the average respondent believes that this next generation of cellular mobile technology will become a reality within two years. Singapore respondents also want consistent high speed, new apps and services, and a trusted network from 5G providers.

In Singapore, one in five said that they will switch providers if their own operator does not switch on 5G within 6 months. The average smartphone user in Singapore is also ready to pay a 52% premium - an additional charge amounting to 52% of their current subscription - for the top five 5G services respondents identified.

The median revenue for mobile broadband subscriptions is S$48. Ericsson estimates that Singaporeans are thus prepared to pay about S$25 more for 5G services if they are 'followers', classed as 45% of the cohort, with early adopters, ready to put down an additional S$30. 'Laggards' on the other hand, classed as 35% of the cohort, would only want to pay S$20 more. Medians are the mid-point of a range of numbers, and can often be a very different value from averaging the same numbers.

Asked how a 5G smartphone would differ from a 4G model, Singapore respondents suggested 360-degree cameras (42%); 8K resolution (41%); and tracking of eye movements (34%). More than eight in 10 (82%) said they expect more than good battery life and storage capacity on 5G-ready devices.

Of the Singapore smartphone users willing to pay a significant premium for 5G, four in 10 are expecting new applications and services, with Ericsson identifying six types of use cases for the country: automotive, entertainment, gaming and AR/VR, mobile broadband, smart home fixed wireless access (FWA), shopping and immersive communications. The consumer expectation in Singapore is that services such as smart home sensors and 5G TVs will be the top two applications to be made available in a 5G plan, followed by 5G hot zones. A hot zone is a cluster of connectivity hotspots, in effect offering connectivity over an area larger than can be covered by one hotspot alone.

In South Korea, the top services and apps expected are VR shopping, then hot zones and facial recognition to pay; Indonesia prefers dioramas, then 3D holograms and then hot zones; Thailand is in favour of hot zones, then dioramas and then holograms; while Australia wants TV, smart home sensors and hot zones. A diorama would offer viewing perspectives of a location similar to what's possible with VR worlds, possibly with AR information superimposed. It would also be possible to view holograms in a diorama.

5G coverage is forecast to reach 45% of the world’s population by end of 2024. This could surge to 65% as spectrum-sharing technology enables 5G deployments on LTE (4G) frequency bands. With spectrum sharing, hardware switches between delivering 4G and 5G services on the same spectrum as required. Wiktorin noted that there are so many people living in cities now that it could even be 90 to 95% population coverage in cities within mature markets.

Wiktorin summarises a presentation on the research findings from Ericsson: 5G uptake will be faster than expected; Singapore consumers are happy to pay as much as 52% of what they pay today for additional selected 5G services; more than half of Singaporean smartphone users think AR headsets will be the norm by 2025; spectrum sharing means up to 65% of the world can enjoy 5G by 2024; and operators will have to provide more than speed and data capacity advantages if they want to maximise 5G earnings.

Communication service providers in several markets have switched on 5G following the launch of 5G-compatible smartphones, Ericsson shared. Service providers in some markets are also setting more ambitious targets for population coverage of up to 90% within the first year.

The strong commitment of chipset and device vendors is also key to the acceleration of 5G adoption. Smartphones for all main spectrum bands are slated to hit the market over the course of this year. As 5G devices increasingly become available and more 5G networks go live, over 10 million 5G subscriptions are projected worldwide by the end of 2019.

Fredrik Jejdling, Executive VP and Head of Networks, Ericsson, says: “5G is definitely taking off and at a rapid pace. This reflects the service providers’ and consumers’ enthusiasm for the technology. 5G will have positive impact on people’s lives and businesses, realising gains beyond the IoT and the 4th industrial revolution. However, the full benefits of 5G can only be reaped with the establishment of a solid ecosystem in which technology, regulatory, security, and industry partners all have a part to play.”

Ericsson has secured 22 5G commercial contracts that have been publicly announced together with customers. It is part of nine live commercial networks with 5G services. The company has shipped 3 million 5G-ready radios as of March 2019, and was the first to successfully perform interoperability tests with 3rd-party device chipsets in the high, mid and low bands of network spectrum.

Explore:

Read the Ericsson Mobility Report June 2019

Read the Ericsson Consumer Potential Study 2019

*Statistically, these views are representative of almost 4 million people in Singapore.