Frost & Sullivan charts shape of transportation to come

The mobility industry is facing profound transformation with the convergence of autonomous driving, connectivity and electrification, which will unleash business opportunities for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), tech companies and mobility providers, according to Frost & Sullivan. Similarly, the line between public and private transportation is increasingly blurred.

“This convergence will be driven by data that revolves around both the car and the consumer. Future-oriented solutions will involve the development of intelligence on all levels rather than focusing on one pillar,” found Frost & Sullivan Senior Partner Sarwant Singh. “The shift from private vehicles to multimodal integrated mobility is a further disruption the industry faces: due to a convergence of social, demographic and technological innovations, we are witnessing a shift from people using cars as the preferred or even only choice to using them as part of a wider system.”

Singh said that in the future, tech companies which offer solutions for autonomous driving will compete with traditional OEMs. This will lead to a disruption of the industry and Frost & Sullivan expects the market to grow to US$60 billion in 2030.

The consulting firm points out that the pace at which connected services, sensoring solutions and the like are developing make it safe to assume that full autonomous functionality can be achieved within the next decade. The automation technology roadmaps of 80% of the major OEMs are expected to be finalised this year, for instance.

Shared mobility business models include carsharing, ridesharing, ride hailing as well as demand-responsive solutions and smart parking. In future, fleet management is likely to become more integrated and comprise not only company vehicles, but increasingly carsharing and other elements of the mobility mix, Frost & Sullivan said. Integrated fleet management technology will be complementary to integrated mobility solutions.

“Today’s niche business models will become mainstream, particularly digitally-enabled mobility services, which will lead to a convergence of public and private transportation,” concluded Singh. “Overall, this will lead to a more convenient, user friendly, on-demand transportation network for the customer, which will revolutionise the way we use cars in urban areas in particular.”