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| Source: BMW blog. The evolution of autonomous driving will require a lot of testing and a complete rethink of how cars are designed. |
Forty automated BMW 7 Series prototype cars, produced in collaboration with Intel and Mobileye, will be ready by the end of 2017, the company said. These will form a fleet of 40 highly-automated and fully-automated vehicles by the end of the year, with test drives occurring on public roads in countries such as the US and Germany. The focus will be on two main types of use: driving without oncoming traffic (motorways) and driving in city centre environments.
"By developing these BMW 7 Series advanced prototypes collaboratively, the partners will ensure the timely roll out of the BMW Group's first highly-automated series vehicle (level 3) – the BMW iNext, due in 2021. BMW iNext is the BMW Group's first venture into highly-automated driving. From a technical perspective, the BMW iNext will also be capable of level 4 and 5 operation. "Whether or not this is achievable in practice depends on a number of external factors, but it is not yet possible to predict how these will develop," BMW said in a statement.
BMW points out that an autonomous vehicle must behave predictably, safely and reliably to be considered ready for commercial use. While theoretical calculations have determined that around 240 million kilometres of testing on public roads would be needed to provide assurance for every situation, the company said this would not be "practicable nor sensible".
"In fact, the most relevant tests relate to a much smaller number of critical driving situations, not the total distance travelled. Instead, autonomous vehicle safeguarding is carried out by analysing 'foundation' situations that have been investigated in real-world trials. These situations are
then extrapolated using stochastic simulation to provide comprehensive validation," the company stated. For example, BMW said it will eventually be in a position to test around 5 million driving situations per simulation for every software release with all tests completed in a reasonable time.
According to BMW, there are several stages of autonomous driving, and the technology of today is at Level 2, characterised by driver assistance systems as a preliminary to automated driving. The driver continues to be responsible for driving at all times
Level 3 will come online in 2021 with the BMW iNext. With level 3, "the driver and vehicle share
the responsibility for controlling the vehicle for the first time", BMW said. During highly automated driving in traffic that is moving in the same direction and is segregated from oncoming traffic, the driver will be able to perform secondary in-vehicle activities for longer periods of time or relax (literally taking eyes off the road). "They must still be in a position to take over the task of driving again within a reasonable amount of time (a few seconds) when prompted to by the system," BMW said.
In Level 4 (starting from 2021 with technical provisos, through BMW iNext), expect fully-automated driving in urban traffic and – in a version with extended functionality – in traffic that is moving in the same direction and is segregated from oncoming traffic.
"The driver can sleep during long-distance journeys if necessary. The key difference compared to level 3: the time span for taking over control again is far longer," BMW explains.
Level 5 will develop in parallel to levels 3 and 4 but probably occur post-2020 in the form of pilot projects. In this level, there will be true autonomous driving, where the steering wheel and pedals are no longer absolutely necessary. Passengers will sit in the vehicle without any involvement in the task of driving; neither is a driving licence required.
"Assuming the vehicle is fitted with pedals and a steering wheel, the driver may take over the task of driving if they wish but will never be obliged to do so," BMW explained.
BMW observes that delegating the responsibility for controlling the vehicle to the vehicle itself for a
certain period of time is due to become permissible by law in Germany by end-2017, and similar legislation is expected to be passed elsewhere in the near future.
"At present, the driver is responsible for the task of driving at all times, even if they are allowed to take their hands off the steering wheel for a few seconds for a substantial strain-relieving effect on long journeys, in particular. While it is true that humans are responsible for most traffic accidents, at the same time they are the best preventers of accidents too. Current systems already work very well, yet they are certainly not yet able to substitute human intelligence in certain situations. And the driver needs to be aware of this," the car company stated.
While automated driving may be on the horizon, it is not a matter of making existing sensor systems better, but for a whole paradigm shift. According to BMW, the understanding of safety, a stable cloud-based backend and highly dynamic high-definition map information are all going to be critical. "If a vehicle is to temporarily assume responsibility for controlling itself, then we need fail-operational systems, where a fault does not result in failure of the entire system. Brakes, steering and the electrical system that supplies them each require a double safeguard to ensure that the vehicle can
continue to be driven in the event of a fault. The BMW Group together with its partners will complete these large-scale tasks by 2021," the company said.
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