· 5G subscriptions forecast to hit 190 million by end of 2020; 2.8 billion by end-2025
· 5G a US$41 billion revenue opportunity for service providers in Southeast Asia by 2030
Ericsson expects the global number of 5G subscriptions to top 190 million by the end of 2020 and 2.8 billion by the end of 2025. 5G networks are forecast to carry nearly half of the world’s mobile data traffic in 2025 and in Southeast Asia and Oceania, 5G will account for 21% of mobile subscriptions by 2025.
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| Source: Ericsson. The Ericsson Mobility Report dated June 2020 forecasts that 5G mobile data traffic will be half of all mobile data traffic in 2025. |
These predictions are from the June 2020 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, along with projections for data traffic growth, and regional subscriptions. The report also takes an incisive look at the role of networks and digital infrastructure in keeping societies running, and families connected during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nunzio Mirtillo, Head of Ericsson South East Asia, Oceania and India, said, “The current COVID-19 pandemic has challenged us to do many things differently and to move activities online to different digital platforms. This has led to data proliferation as well as a geographical shift of data traffic from downtown business and public areas to residential areas on both fixed and mobile networks. The crisis has also demonstrated the critical importance of connectivity.”
While 5G subscription growth in some markets has slowed as a result of the pandemic, this is outweighed by other markets where it is accelerating, prompting Ericsson to raise its year-end 2020 forecast for global 5G subscriptions.
Mirtillo added, “5G is a platform for innovation. Unlike previous generations centred around consumer and personal communications, 5G will serve both consumers and enterprises, 5G will take IoT to the next level where superior connectivity is a prerequisite.”
Changes in behaviour due to lockdown restrictions have caused significant changes in the usage of both fixed and mobile networks, Ericsson said. Data traffic increased due to more bidirectional and streaming services, for example.
The largest share of the traffic increase has been absorbed by fixed residential networks, which have experienced 20-100% growth. Some providers experienced an up to 90% increase in voice-over-Wi-Fi calls.
"People needed to stay connected because they could not meet face-to-face," noted Mirtillo, who shared that more calls were made during the pandemic, and that calls were also longer than before - providers experienced 20% to 70% higher voice traffic.
In a recent study conducted by Ericsson Consumer Lab, 83% of the respondents from 11 countries claim that ICT helped them a lot to cope with the lockdown. Among the findings:
- Seventy-four percent of respondents aged 60+ agree that ICT has helped them stay connected to family and friends during the crisis
- One in five has started to adopt new Internet activities, mostly just one, but some more than one
- Two in three workers said ICT has helped them significantly for doing their job
- Mobile broadband usage increased by an hour a day, while fixed broadband use increased by 2.5 hours a day
The results also show an increased adoption and usage of ICT services that have helped consumers adapt to new realities, such as e-learning and wellness apps.
While 57% say they will save money for financial security in the future, one-third plan to invest in 5G and an improved broadband at home to be better prepared for a potential second wave of COVID-19.
Respondents were also asked about their attitudes to 5G. Forty-four percent of respondents said society will benefit hugely from 5G. "This has become more obvious now," said Mirtillo. "The more we launch 5G the more it becomes obvious. Very very few strongly disagree. The majority agree or are neutral."
The same research concluded with predictions for a post-COVID world:
- Three in four value network resilience and say internet connectivity will be critical during crises
- Six in 10 think automated delivery drones or fleets of driverless cars might replace delivery people.
- Sixty percent also believe working from home is the new normal.
Magnus Ewerbring, CTO, Ericsson Asia-Pacific said that Ericsson is positioning itself in new industries and businesses. “Reliable, fast and responsive, 5G has the capabilities to empower new businesses and open up revenue streams for communication service providers. At Ericsson, we have been investing actively in R&D to establish a wide portfolio of 5G products and solutions to enable our customers transition seamlessly to 5G and leverage the full benefits of 5G,” he said.
In Southeast Asia, the projected value of the 5G-enabled digitalisation revenues for service providers will be approximately US$41 billion by 2030, Ericsson said. The combination of 5G and digitalisation creates new opportunities for service providers to extend their businesses beyond connectivity into a variety of sectors ranging from healthcare, automotive to manufacturing, with use cases spanning connecting up a mine 400 m below sea level, controlling excavators in dangerous environments remotely with a system that provides tactile feedback and platooning - when a fleet of trucks moves together while only 1.5 m apart.
Ericsson now has more than 93 commercial 5G agreements or contracts with unique communication service providers, of which 40 are live networks. In MENA, Ericsson is part of commercial 5G live networks with five providers; in Northeast Asia with nine, and in Southeast Asia, Oceania and India with three. According to Ewerbring 5G networks are under implementation in Australia and Thailand, while pioneer South Korea has seen "very good takeup" since launch in April.
"Subscribers are coming in, the devices are there and the numbers keep on going up," he said, sharing that early adopters are enjoying more potent applications with immersive content with 5G.
Explore:
Download the June 2020 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report
Read Connectivity in a COVID-19 world, an Ericsson ConsumerLab study
*ICT refers to information and communications technologies; R&D stands for research and development; IoT for the Internet of Things.
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