The Alibaba DAMO Academy (Academy for discovery, adventure, momentum and outlook) is dedicated to exploring the unknown through scientific and
technological research and innovation. Every year, the organisation lists top trends for the year. The top 10 technology trends for 2020 according to the Alibaba DAMO Academy are:
Artificial intelligence evolves from perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) has reached or surpassed humans in the areas of perceptual intelligence such as speech to text, natural language processing, video understanding etc; but in the field of cognitive intelligence that requires external knowledge, logical reasoning, or domain migration, it is still in its infancy.
Cognitive intelligence will draw inspiration from cognitive psychology, brain science, and human social history, combined with techniques such as cross-domain knowledge graphs, inference of causality, and continuous learning to establish effective mechanisms for the stable acquisition and expression of knowledge. These enable machines to understand and utilise knowledge, achieving key breakthroughs for cognitive intelligence.
In-memory computing addresses "memory wall" challenges in AI computing
In Von Neumann architecture, memory and processor are separate and computation requires data to be moved back and forth. With the development of data-driven AI algorithms in recent years, hardware is now the bottleneck holding back the development of more advanced algorithms. In processing-in-memory (PIM) architectures, memory and the processor are fused together and computations are performed where data is stored, with minimal data movement. As such, computation parallelism and power efficiency can be significantly improved. We believe innovations in PIM architecture are the ticket to next-generation AI.
The Industrial Internet of Things (IoT) powers digital transformation
In 2020, 5G, rapid development of IoT devices, cloud computing and edge computing will accelerate the fusion of information systems, communication systems, and industrial control systems. Through advanced industrial IoT, manufacturing companies can achieve automation of machines, in-factory logistics, and production scheduling as a way to realise consumer-to-business* (C2B) smart manufacturing.
In addition, interconnected industrial systems can adjust and coordinate the production capability of both upstream and downstream vendors. This will significantly increase the manufacturers’ productivity and profitability in the long term. If the productivity increases 5-10%, it could mean trillions of additional RMB for manufacturers with production goods valued in the hundreds of trillion RMB.
Large-scale collaboration between machines become possible
Traditional discrete intelligence cannot achieve real-time perception and decision-making that large-scale connected intelligent devices can. The development of collaborative sensing technology in the Internet of things and 5G communication technology will realise collaboration among multiple agents - machines cooperate with each other and compete with each other to complete target tasks.
The group intelligence brought by the cooperation of multiple intelligent bodies will further amplify the value of the intelligent system: large-scale intelligent traffic light systems can be adjusted in real-time, while warehouse robots will work together to complete cargo sorting more efficiently.
Modular design makes chip manufacturing easier and faster
Traditional models of chip design cannot efficiently respond to the fast-evolving, fragmented and customised needs of chip production. The open-source system-on-a-chip (SoC) chip design based on RISC-V, a hardware description language, and IP-based modular chip design concepts have accelerated the rapid development of agile design methods and the ecosystem for open-source chips. In addition, packaging for chiplets - a mini-chip that is designed to be modular so it can be combined with other mini-chips - has advanced, so chips that can be customised quickly for different applications.
Large-scale production-grade Blockchain applications will gain mass adoption
BaaS (Blockchain-as-a-service) will further reduce the barriers of entry for enterprise Blockchain applications. A variety of hardware chips embedded with core algorithms used in edge, cloud and designed specifically for Blockchain will also emerge, allowing assets in the physical world to be mapped to assets on Blockchain, further expanding the boundaries of the Internet of Value and realising "multichain interconnections".
In the future, a large number of innovative Blockchain application scenarios with multidimensional collaboration across different industries and ecosystems will emerge, and large-scale production-grade Blockchain applications with more than 10 million daily active items (DAI) will gain mass adoption. The Internet of Value or Values refers to the Internet as the platform for storing and transferring values of any kind, including money.
A critical period before large-scale quantum computing
Quantum computing is entering a critical period. In 2019, the race in reaching quantum supremacy brought the focus back to quantum computing. The term refers to proving, without a doubt, that quantum computers are able to achieve a task that would be impossible for traditional computers to complete in a reasonable length of time.
A demonstration using superconducting circuits, boosted overall confidence on superconducting quantum computing for the realisation of a large-scale quantum computer (Editor's note: it is likely that Alibaba DAMO is referring to Google's announcement using its Sycamore device. This finding has been disputed by IBM).
In 2020, the field of quantum computing will receive increasing investment, which comes with enhanced competition. The field is also expected to experience a speed-up in commercialisation and the formation of an ecosystem. The next milestones will be the realisation of fault-tolerant quantum computing and the demonstration of quantum advantages in real-world problems. Either is of a great challenge given current knowledge.
New materials will revolutionise semiconductor devices
Under the pressure of both Moore's Law and the explosive demand of computing power and storage, it is difficult for classic silicon-based transistors to maintain sustainable development of the semiconductor industry. Until now, major semiconductor manufacturers still have no clear answer and option to chips beyond 3 nm.
New materials and mechanisms will make new logic, storage, and interconnection devices a reality. For example, topological insulators and two-dimensional superconducting materials that can achieve lossless transport of electrons and spin can become the basis for new high-performance logic and interconnect devices; while new magnetic materials and new resistive switching materials can realise high-performance magnetic memory such as SOT-MRAM and resistive memory. SOT-MRAM (spin-orbit torque magnetoresistive random access memory) is faster, denser and more efficient than existing memory technology.
Growing adoption of AI technologies that protect data privacy
The compliance costs demanded by the recent data protection laws and regulations related to data transfer are getting higher. In light of this, there has been growing interest in using AI technologies to protect data privacy. The essence is to enable the user to process data from different data providers while keeping the data private. Such AI technologies promise to solve the problems of data silos and a lack of trust in today's data-sharing practices, and will truly unleash the value of data in the foreseeable future.
Cloud has become the backbone of the entire digital economy
The cloud has grown far beyond the scope of IT infrastructure, and gradually evolved to become the centre of all IT technology innovation. Cloud has a close relationship with almost all IT technologies, including new chips, new databases, self-driving adaptive networks, big data, AI, IoT, Blockchain, quantum computing and so forth.
Meanwhile, it has creates new technologies, such as serverless computing, cloud-native software architecture, software-hardware integrated design, as well as intelligent automated operation. Cloud computing is redefining every aspect of IT, making new IT technologies more accessible for the public.
*In the C2B model, what consumers really want governs what businesses provide to them as products and services. This eliminates the unpredictability of the traditional method, where a business commercialises a product or service on the assumption that consumers want it. If that assumption is correct, well and good; if the assumption is wrong, effort and resources are wasted.
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